chapter 2
              Global 
              Economic 
              Outlook
                                   41 overview 
                                   42 global economy
                                      Information Box 2.1 - Response to the 
                                      COVID-19 Pandemic by Selected Multilateral 
                                      Development Banks
                                   59 conclusion
                                   60 references
            CHAPTER 2 SUMMARY: GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
        GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
                      2020                                                                                                                                                                            2021
          DISMAL GROWTH                                           The Impact of                                                                                                      PROMISING GLOBAL
                                                                  COVID-19 Pandemic                                                                                                             PROSPECTS
                                                                       Restricted movement                                                                    GLOBAL
                                                                       Forced lockdowns                                                                       GROWTH                                                        ADVANCED        EMDEs
                                                                                                                                                                                                                           ECONOMIES
                 -4.4%                                                 Business closures                                                                                                                                     3.9%           6%
                -4.4%                                                                                                                                                          5.2%
                                                                                                                                                                               5.2%
                                                                                                                                                             Global 
                Negative                                                                                                                                     Economy 
                Global Growth                                                                                                                                to Rebound
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              GLOBAL     ADVANCED
                Anticipated                                                                                                                                  in 2021                                                                     ECONOMIES    EMDES
                in 2020                                                                                                                                                                               INFLATION
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              3.4%        1.6%       4.7%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        8.3%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         2021
          ADVANCED         EMDES                                       Decelerated activities                                                                                                                                           WORLD
          ECONOMIES                                                                                                                                                                                                       -10.4%         TRADE 
                                                                       Economic disruptions                                                            Silver Lining                                                        2020
          -5.8%          -3.3%
                                                                                                                                                           Effective                       To decline further in 2021 as                                    FDI
                                                                       FDI declines 40% in 2020                                                            implementation of               restrictive investment policy 
             Unfavourable performance in                                                                                                                   fiscal and monetary             measures affect cross-border 
             advanced economies and EMDEs                                                                                                                  measures                        M&A activities
             due to fall in domestic demand,                           World trade plummets                                                                COVID-19 vaccine 
             particularly private consumption                          10.4% in 2020                                                                       discovery and 
             and investment, coupled with                                                                                                                  containment of                   Risks to global economy persists: 
             dismal trade growth                                                                                                                           pandemic
                                                                       Debt crisis                                                                         Opportunities to                     US-China trade tensions             Low oil prices
             China to cushion decline in EMDEs                                                                                                             institute reforms 
                                                                                                                                                           towards                              Uncertainties surrounding           Climate crisis
                                                                                                                                                           accelerating                         Brexit
                                                                                                                                                           digitalisation and                                                       Increase in government
                                                                                                                                                           pursuing                             Geopolitical tensions               debts
                                                                                                                                                           sustainable growth                                                        
                                                                                                                                                                                                 
CHAPTER 2 SUMMARY: GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
2020                                                               2021
DISMAL GROWTHThe Impact of                        PROMISING GLOBAL
COVID-19 Pandemic                                            PROSPECTS
Restricted movement        GLOBAL
Forced lockdowns           GROWTH                                                        ADVANCED        EMDEs
                                                                                        ECONOMIES
-4.4%Business closures                                                                    3.9%           6%
-4.4%                                       5.2%
                                            5.2%
                          Global 
Negative                  Economy 
Global Growth             to Rebound
                                                                                           GLOBAL     ADVANCED
Anticipated               in 2021                                                                     ECONOMIES    EMDES
in 2020                                                            INFLATION
                                                                                           3.4%        1.6%       4.7%
                                                                                                                     8.3%
                                                                                                                      2021
ADVANCEDEMDESDecelerated activities                                                                  WORLD
ECONOMIES                                                                              -10.4%         TRADE 
Economic disruptionsSilver Lining                                                        2020
-5.8%-3.3%
                        Effective                       To decline further in 2021 as                                    FDI
FDI declines 40% in 2020implementation of               restrictive investment policy 
Unfavourable performance in fiscal and monetary         measures affect cross-border 
advanced economies and EMDEs measures                   M&A activities
due to fall in domestic demand, World trade plummets COVID-19 vaccine 
particularly private consumption 10.4% in 2020discovery and 
and investment, coupled with containment of              Risks to global economy persists: 
dismal trade growth     pandemic
Debt crisis             Opportunities to                     US-China trade tensions             Low oil prices
China to cushion decline in EMDEsinstitute reforms 
                        towards                              Uncertainties surrounding           Climate crisis
                        accelerating                         Brexit
                        digitalisation and                                                       Increase in government
                        pursuing                             Geopolitical tensions               debts
                        sustainable growth