Methodological Overview
       ESPON Database                                Data Collection
         Potential Data                          Pre-Accession Aid Data
       Potential Analysis                             Meta Analysis
                                                 Analysis of Regional Pre-
                                                      Accession Aid
                            Socio-economic impacts
                          Relation between Potentials 
                             and Pre-Accession Aid
                          GDP         Unemployment
   Location Quotients (&                                      Policy Oriented 
    related to potentials)                                      Typologies
                       Quantitative         Qualitative Impact 
                      Impact Analysis         Analysis (case 
                                                 studies)
       Sabine Zillmer                      IRS  Institute for Regional Development and Structural Planning
       Preliminary Results – Typology Macro Level
                                       • Change of relative position 
                                         depends on national income levels 
                                         and national performance
                                       • Above average growth and low 
                                         intervention level – capital regions 
                                         of Poland, Hungary, Latvia, 
                                         Slovenia
                                       • Average and below average growth 
                                         despite relatively high intervention 
                                         level – mostly only in quite 
                                         peripheral regions
                                       • No region in group of highest 
                                         intervention level with clearly 
                                         above average income growth
       Sabine Zillmer                    IRS  Institute for Regional Development and Structural Planning
        Preliminary Results – Typology Meso Level
                                       • Above national average growth 
                                        with low intervention level – many 
                                        capital and other centrally located 
                                        regions and some (Western) 
                                        border regions
                                       • Below national average growth 
                                        despite relatively high intervention 
                                        level – fewer cases in mostly 
                                        peripheral regions
                                       Pure income impacts very limited 
                                        on both spatial levels
      Sabine Zillmer                    IRS  Institute for Regional Development and Structural Planning
              Preliminary Results – Unemployment 
                 Development and EU Intervention
                                            Latvia
                                           Romania
                                             Estonia
        20
        1214
        18
         12
        10
        16                      Latgale
                                Sud-Est
        Centru
        14
         10
       ee8   Vidzeme                                               Bucuresti
       tt                                                           Riga
       a Laane-Eesti                                                 Kirde-Eesti
       era12                                                                     1999
       t r
       at 
       rnt                                                                       2002
       ten8                                                                    1999
       nme
       ey10                                                                      Potenziell (2002)
       mom                                                                     2002
       yly6
       op                      Sud-Vest                                          Potenziell (1999)
       lmo                                                                     Potenziell (2002)
       pel                                                                     1999
       np86
       mU                                                                      Potenziell (1999)
       em             Pohja-Eesti                                              2002
       ne
       Un                                                                      Exponentiell (2002)
        U6
        4                                                                      Exponentiell (1999)
          4
         4
        2 2
         2
         0
          0
        0 0        2        4         6        8        10       12       14
           0          5          10         15         20         25         30
          0     2     4      6     8     10     12    14     16    18    20
                                  % regional PAA of national PAA
                                 % regional PAA of national PAA
                                  % regional PAA of national PAA
       Sabine Zillmer                          IRS  Institute for Regional Development and Structural Planning
            Preliminary Results – Role of Potentials
    • Different potentials matter for income and unemployment 
      developments to different extents
             Income development                Unemployment development
                Population density                    Population density
            Active population density             Active population density
         Sectoral employment structure         Sectoral employment structure
              Agglomeration (size)                      (Accessibility)
              Institutional potential               Institutional potential
    • Other influences: initial unemployment and income; region 
      types in some cases; not observed influences
       Sabine Zillmer                         IRS  Institute for Regional Development and Structural Planning